UFC Fight Night: Rozenstruik vs. Sakai Fight Picks
After a long awaited week off from fights, the delinquent is back to deliver another fight pick post for UFC Vegas 28. I figured Dana would have given us UFC 263 after a week off, never the less, we still got fight picks to make.
I announced on Twitter, that during the week off I have decided to completely reconstruct the entire website. Being home from college and actually looking at everything showed me how many bugs the original website has. The reconstruction process has taken a little longer than anticipated. Once the new website is fully up and running, I can devote my energy into the next project I have in store for you.
Jairzinho Rozenstruik (-125) vs Augusto Sakai (-105)
Does Vegas know the main event is five rounds? Maybe, if the fight was scheduled for three round, these odds would make a little more sense. Rozenstruik went five rounds in his last match up against Gane and because Rozenstruik lost, it seems like Vegas has a short term memory. Rozenstruik is 1-2 in his last three fights.
Who are those 2 losses? Ciryl Gane who dominated him with his pressure and grappling, and the champion, Francis N'Gannou. Hard to give up on "Bigi Boy" when he lost against two tough opponents. Jairzinho Rozenstruik has the better fighting resume than Sakai. These odds make it seem like Jairzinho Rozenstruik is being counted out after his last loss. Rozenstruik is levels above Augusto Sakai.
I love this bet. If you want to spice it up, Rozenstruik by KO is a great play. Especially because this is five rounds and Sakai does not have the best cardio. Hammer Rozenstruik.
Jairzinho Rozenstruik (-125)
Santiago Ponzinibbio (EV) vs Miguel Baeza (-130)
Seems like people writing Ponzinibbio off. Ponzinibbio's first fight back in 2.5 years resulted in a first round knock out loss, so I understand some skepticism here. Prior to those 2.5 years off Santiago Ponzinibbio was a legitimate contender in the welterweight division. When you take an extensive amount of time off for health reasons, you have to consider the ring rust factor. I will admit Ponzinibbio did not look like his usual self last time out. However if Ponzinibbio finds his groove he can be a real problem for the rising prospect, Miguel Baeza.
Really interesting match up here and I wouldn't be too surprised if Baeza wins. I like the value in Ponzinibbio, if he looks anything he did in the Neil Magny fight he will win. Comparing Santiago Ponzinibbio and Miguel Baeza stats, they are oddly identical. No man seems to have the advantage in the stat department. On paper, we should have a great fight on our hands, it is all going to depend on what type of Ponzinibbio comes to fight.
I am going to roll the dice and take a gamble with Ponzinibbio. I truly believe he needed one fight to shake the ring rust off. I have to ride with the veteran underdog, Santiago Ponzinibbio.
I advise leaving Ponzinibbio out of your parlay, unless you are confident.
Santiago Ponzinibbio (EV)
Mason Jones (-300) vs Alan Patrick (+230)
Hesitant to pick Mason Jones at a -300 favorite, but did it anyway. A classic match up of youth vs age. Alan Patrick is 37 years old, Mason Jones is 26. Jones held a record of 10-0 before he debuted in the UFC four months ago. Alan Patrick is 15-3, but his last win came back in February of 2018. Three years without a win is a long time in mix martial arts. While Mason Jones is young and staying active.
Fun little stat for you, Mason Jones averages 6.01 more significant strikes landed than Alan Patrick. Patrick's last win by finish came back in 2013. If Mason Jones does not get the win by finish and it goes to the judges I love our odds especially knowing the significant strike statistic. Jones's ground game is solid enough where he should be able to keep the fight standing.
Love Mason Jones but -300 is a tough straight bet, definitely a nice parlay piece here, possibly with Jairzinho Rozenstruik?
Mason Jones (-300)
Jordan Leavitt (-205) vs Claudio Puelles (+165)
Attention ladies and gentlemen the Jordan Leavitt hype train will be leaving the station in five minutes, please take your seats. Leavitt is an electric undefeated prospect, who could be a lawyer if he wanted to hang up the gloves. Leavitt won in 22 seconds on a slam in the first round, a slam.
Not going to sit here and tell you I know everything their is to know about Claudio Puelles. I do know, ever since he got into the UFC he has not been very active like most 26 year old prospects are. Granted he could be trying to play it safe take a year off in between each fight to improve. However Dana normally loves the young guys to be constantly active. Claudio Puelles has two wins in the UFC, the guys he beat are no longer on the roster.
Am I fanboying a little bit for Leavitt? Yes, but he is a legitimate prospect in the lightweight division. The fight will end up on the mat, and I can't wait to see Leavitt work on the ground against UFC level talent. If you do not like -205 straight up, spice it up take Leavitt by submission or throw him in a parlay.
Jordan Leavitt (-205)
If I was to parlay these picks I would do: Jairzinho Rozenstruik, Mason Jones and Jordan Leavitt.
Could be good.
Once the new website is up and running expect much more blog content coming out of here. Everyone can write a blog though, my plans are much bigger. Something, Delinquent-esque is in creation.
Side note, I finished this current post on Monday, I have just been editing it. However I just got an email, and I was offered a position to cover MMA betting content. Basically what I am doing now. Everything I post here will now just be available on another platform. My goal with the new position is to grow the Delinquent brand and bring a larger following back to this website. Don't worry, I ain't leaving!
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70% of my fight picks hit