UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Yan Betting Guide

Had three bets selected before looking at the lines, saw Sodiq Yusuff was -900 so I scrapped that section. Imagine wasting time trying to explain why to bet on a -900 favorite? Not here. If you ever catch Delinquent MMA giving betting advice on -900 favorites, assume I sold out.

UFC Vegas 61 is a decently entertaining card, got some prelim action for it.

Brendan Allen (+100) vs. Krzysztof Jotko (-120)

Betting on Brendan Allen vs Krzysztof Jotko comes down to one factor, which form of Allen are we going to see? If we see the mad man who fights with all of his emotions and gets reckless for no reason, he will lose. However, if we see the strategic Allen who comes in with a game plan and fights smart, he could win.

Allen has made some mistakes, but he's a young fighter, everyone screws up. The value of Brendan Allen is too good to turn away from. Whether for better or worse, Allen is the more dangerous fighter. He's got the power and ground game to finish the fight, but I see this fight going the distance.

Jotko is not an easy man to finish, nor does he finish fights himself. Unless Allen can catch Jotko, this fight will be decided by the judges. Betting that we see a strategic Allen on Saturday. I'd also look to take the over.

Bet: Brendan Allen (+100)

Randy Costa (-280) vs. Guido Cannetti (+235)

Randy Costa vs Guido Cannetti is a very interesting match-up. Costa has his back up against the wall, if he loses this fight he could be cut from the UFC. Whereas Cannetti is 42 years old with absolutely nothing to lose.

As a fan, I want to take Costa, but as a delinquent, I have to take Cannetti. Costa was a -200 favorite against Tony Kelley. He looked decent in the first round but his cardio failed him and he lost by TKO. Granted, Cannetti does not have the best cardio either but it's better than Costas.

Cannetti has fought tougher opponents his entire career, the strength in schedule is not even close. Not many people know, Randy Costa signed with the UFC before beating an opponent with a positive record. Prior to the UFC, his 4 professional opponents combined for an overall record of 5-14.

Did not mean to rain all over the Costa parade. Going to play Guido Cannetti here, might even look to take him by 2nd or 3rd round finish.

Bet: Guido Cannetti (+235)


(214-120-6)

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