UFC 280: Oliveira vs. Makhachev Betting Guide
Seeing Askarov vs Royval was canceled last minute, we went an easy 2-0 on UFC Vegas 62. A wise man once said, "Alonzo Menifield might be the easiest pick on the entire card."
Been a minute since the Betting Guide has had more than three bets. Well, buckle up because we are locked and loaded for UFC 280 Oliveira vs. Makhachev.
Charles Oliveira (+145) vs. Islam Makhachev (-170)
Unfortunately, because Charles Oliveira missed weight by half a pound in his previous title defense he was stripped of the belt. Which was an odd circumstance all around, many fighters and fans believe the scale was knocked out of calibration. Regardless, Oliveira won and now Islam Makhachev looks to take his claim as the lightweight champion.
Charles Oliveira vs Islam Makhachev is a tough matchup to break down, so many various ways this fight could play out. No question that both of these guys are dominant on the ground. Islam is a technically sound striker but he'd rather keep the fight to the ground. Oliveira is a striking powerhouse. Justin Gaethje said he has never felt that type of power before in his life.
Oliveira vs Makhachev is an interesting one to bet on. Makhachev could easily take Oliveira down and finish the fight quickly like he's done in his last 4 fights. Or Oliveira could keep proving to be a resilient warrior and overcome the Dagestan power.
Taking the underdog Charles Oliveira against Islam Makhachev. Recently Oliveira has proven he can battle back from dire situations and overcome any adversity thrown at him. Give me the underdog Charlie Olives.
Bet: Charles Oliveira (+145)
Petr Yan (-265) vs. Sean O'Malley (+225)
Petr Yan vs Sean O'Malley makes no sense. How does O'Malley go from a no contest with Pedro Munhoz to a fight with the number 1 contender? Obviously, the UFC is pushing O'Malley to pump PPV sales and gain viewership but it logistically makes no sense. No other fighter in the bantamweight division would get the number 1 contender after a no contest.
A handful of people will be advising you to bet on Sean O'Malley, the only chance O'Malley wins would be by knocking Yan out. So if your mind is set on betting on O'Malley at least do it by knockout so you juice your odds. Before placing that bet, you should know Petr Yan has only been knocked out once in his career and that was back in 2014 when he was an amateur.
Yan takes the same consistent approach in each fight. He feels out his opponent in the first round then looks to move in for the kill. A huge part of Yan's game revolves around calf kicks and wrestling, AKA Sean O'Malleys kryptonite.
Petr Yan finishes Sean O'Malley late into the second round.
Bet: Petr Yan (-265)
Yan wins inside distance (+250)
Beneil Dariush (+160) vs. Mateusz Gamrot (-190)
Mateusz Gamrot opened as a (+220) underdog in his main event fight against Arman Tsarukyan. One of the few people who advised to take Gamrot in that fight and it's about time Vegas put some respect on Mateusz Gamrot's name!
Beneil Dariush has been out of the UFC for a bit, due to his lingering injuries. On the other hand, Gamrot has been all systems go since he signed with the UFC about 2 years ago. Came over as a highly credentialed two-division champ in KSW. Had a little hiccup in his UFC debut but now Gamrot's rolling on all cylinders.
Think it's clear but I'm betting on Mateusz Gamrot. Winning five intense rounds against Tsarukyan is going to be a huge boost in morale and momentum. If you are looking to get more value out of this line, potentially look at Mateusz Gamrot to win by finish.
Bet: Mateusz Gamrot (-190)
Belal Muhammad (+120) vs. Sean Brady (-140)
Belal Muhammad might be the most underrated fighter of all time. In a sick twisted way, it's great for us because we'll keep winning and cashing tickets. Advised betting on Muhammad against Vicente Luque, and plan to do the same against Sean Brady.
In my world, Sean Brady did not win his last fight against Michael Chiesa. Technically speaking Brady won via unanimous decision, but if that fight went on for 20 more seconds Chiesa would have won. When it came to the third round Brady did not have the endurance to keep up with the pace.
No one keeps a high intensity pace with constant pressure like Muhammad. Belive the first round will be fairly close, typically when Brady looks his most sharp. However, as the fight goes on Brady's gas tank will start to fade and Belal will take over. Unbelievable underdog value in Belal Muhammad here.
Bet: Belal Muhammad (+120)
Muhammad Mokaev (-850) vs. Malcolm Gordon (+600)
Honestly feel lousy suggesting betting on an almost -900 favorite, but it must be done. Muhammad Mokaev might only be 22 years old, but he is levels above Malcolm Gordon. I'm sure by the time the 280 betting guide drops Mokaev will be close to an -1100 favorite.
Going to keep the Mokaev vs Gordon breakdown short and sweet. Thankfully Vegas decided to do most of the talking on this one. Now obviously you are not going to play Mokaev straight up because why would you? Instead, if your book allows it I suggest betting on Mokaev to win by way of finish.
Unfortunately, those odds are not yet available but that's how I'd look to get the most value out of this bet. Even Mokaev to win inside the distance at (-200) is better.
Bets: Muhammad Mokaev (-850)
Mokaev wins inside the distance (-200)
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