UFC 263: Adesanya vs. Vettori 2 takes place in Arizona Saturday night. Star-filled UFC card. UFC 263 post should serve as a betting guide for UFC 253 Adesanya vs. Vettori
2-1-1 on the UFC Vegas 28 card, should have been 3-1-0 however Manson Jones ended in a no-contest due to an eye poke. Rozenstruik at -125 was love at first sight. I knew that pick would treat us well.
Maybe three weeks ago I complimented Vegas for the improvement in UFC lines. As you will see for UFC 263, Vegas took 35 steps backwards.
Israel Adesanya (-245) vs Marvin Vettori (+195)
In the main event, one of the greatest strikers faces off against a pissed-off Italian in a highly anticipated rematch. Adesanya and Vettori fought three years ago back in 2018, where Adesanya won via split decision. Marvin Vettori believes he won that fight to this day.
Factors that you should consider when placing a bet on the main event. Israel Adesanya is coming off his first career loss in the UFC. Marvin Vettori holds the momentum being on a 5 fight win streak (6 in Vettori's head if you count the Adesanya fight).
The path to beat Adesanya is clear, take him down, keep him on the ground as Blachowicz did. However that not as simple as it may sound. No doubt Israel Adesanya and his team looked to correct the take-down defense in preparation for Vettori. Plus Adesanya is fired up, definitely looking to make a statement win.
Marvin Vettori did not impress me in his last victory over Kevin Holland and honestly, should not be fighting for the title yet. The rematch honestly seems a little rushed. Vettori could have used one more win before fighting for the title.
Seems like a simple pick if you ask me. Israel Adesanya to the moon!
My pick: Israel Adesanya (-245)
Deiveson Figueiredo (-230) vs Brandon Moreno (+180)
When Figueiredo and Moreno first fought at UFC 256 I picked Figueiredo to win. However, in the rematch, I am putting my bias for Deiveson Figueiredo aside. As much as it breaks my heart to say this, I am picking Brandon Moreno. Hear me out.
Brandon Moreno did not enter UFC 256 on a full championship fight camp like Deiveson Figueiredo. Keep in mind on UFC 255 Figueiredo had a full championship training camp to prepare for Alex Perez.
Now Brandon Moreno is entering UFC 263 with a full championship camp. Plus the biggest factor, a feel for Deiveson Figueiredo's power. Interested to see how Moreno adjusts to having new knowledge of Figgy's fight style and a full fight camp. Going to roll the dice with Moreno, I like all the new factors that play a role in the rematch. Similar to the main event, the value is too good to pass on.
My pick: Brandon Moreno (+180)
Leon Edwards (-600) vs Nate Diaz (+400)
Example A of these lines being catastrophically insane. How could I justify advising you to take Leon Edwards at -600? What are you even supposed to do with odds like these? Come on Vegas.
Why is Leon Edwards such a large favorite? Probably because of what we saw happen last time Nate Diaz was in the octagon. Diaz lost due to doctor stoppage in the third round over a year ago.
I find it hard not to see a similar outcome here. Leon Edwards is a versatile fighter who will be able to have his way against a 36-year-old Nate Diaz. If this fight was to happen years ago I could see it being a well-contested fight. However, I believed an enraged Leon Edwards is looking to make a statement and what better stage than UFC 263.
Leon Edwards vs Nate Diaz is scheduled for five rounds. I expect Leon Edwards to look for a finish in the early rounds. I find it hard to pick such a massive favorite, but in this fight, it seems like a no-brainer fight pick. I have no idea why I even included the Edwards vs Diaz fight in the post.
Leon Edwards is an easy fight pick, not so much an easy bet. Could be the worst bet to make for UFC 263.
My pick: Leon Edwards (-600)
Belal Muhammad (-245) vs Demian Maia (+195)
A little ironic Belal Muhammad is fighting right before Leon Edwards. Demian Maia is 43 years old taking on an up-and-coming fan favorite, Belal Muhammad. Belal Muhammad matches up very nicely against the ground dominant Demian Maia.
Muhammad is typically a safe and strategic fighter who normally leaves the result to the judges. In the match up the game plan is simple. Do not let Maia take you to the ground. Maia has never been known for his striking, only averaging 1.82 significant strikes per minute. The focus for Belal Muhammad and his team becomes all ground-oriented.
Belal Muhammad’s significant strike output combined with his safe fighting style should grant him a win. If you want to spice the bet up, I do not blame you (-245) is not very attractive. Muhammad by knockout could be an interesting play.
My pick: Belal Muhammad (-245)
Drew Dober (-140) vs Brad Riddell (+110)
Called out Vegas for having a short-term memory last week, I'm calling you out again Vegas! Drew Dober lost to Islam Makhachev in his last fight. Now Vegas seems to forget who he is? Drew Dober should be a larger favorite in his fight against Brad Riddell. UFC 263 stays surprising me with these banana-land odds.
Brad Riddell has fought three times in the UFC, and the matchups have been favorable to him. Drew Dober is a huge step up in competition.
If Brad Riddell starts to gain a slight advantage on the feet. Drew Dober has a massive advantage in wrestling. I also trust Dober's striking enough to win standing if he wanted to. One last sprinkle of information about Drew Dober. He has the edge in experience, having 23 more professional fights than Riddell.
Shout out to Vegas for having goldfish’s brain. If it is not obvious yet, Drew Dober is my Hammer play for UFC 263.
My pick: Drew Dober (-140)
UFC 263 Adesanya vs. Vettori 2 is a massive card. Only right I made the fight picks post special! Highlighting a few of my favorite UFC 263 fight picks. Just a Delinquent trying to share my knowledge and hopefully make you money.
UFC 263: Adesanya vs. Vettori 2 takes place in Arizona Saturday night. Follow along at Delinquent MMA on Twitter to see live reactions .My apologies, the new layout for the website is taking longer than anticipated.
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I need to clean this record up.